Balneus

Australian Lefty on Politics, Governance, Science and Info Management

Might the Libs want the ALP to win?

Posted by Dave Bath on 2007-05-08


There are many long-term advantages accruing to robber-barons if the Liberals lose the upcoming Australian Federal election.  An ALP victory in 2007 (especially with more greens in the senate) is much better for the economic predators than if the Liberals are still in government when the economic crises they created become apparent.

I’ll wargame from a robber-baron’s viewpoint.

  • Predators can also wax fat on carrion.  There is no need for the Australian population to be prosperous, especially as receipts are easily moved overseas.
     
  • Australia’s economy is riddled with debt, domestic activity relies on a vulnerable service sector, value-added production is invisible, minerals prices may be peaking, and the capital investment commonsense required at this stage of the business cycle has not occurred.  These conditions presage a fall within the next federal term, and reconstruction (starting with education concentrating on science and engineering) will take at least ten years.
     
  • The gathering storm cannot be prevented, and whoever is in office when it unleashes itself will be economically odious, and unelectable for a decade or two.
     
  • The Liberal Party approaches the natural lifespan of 4 or 5 terms of office, and has enough smart strategists to choose opposition at the most advantageous time.
     
  • During opposition, the party machine can be radicalized by blaming disunity and the wets, allowing an even more aggressive agenda when the Liberals return to power.
     

The only counter-measures available to progressive forces are pre-emptive, by taking the electorate through the complex arguments that detail the coming pain, and show how people are best-served by a progressive agenda that cushions the burdens ahead and shows how radical reconstructive surgery must start now, while we yet have the strength.

Fat chance: the electorate is economically illiterate, and it’s hard to win an election saying "we know you think you are in a boom, but the next decade will be the toughest since the 1930s depression".

Unless the progressive forces warn the population about what is going on before Howard loses power, unless the ALP takes credit for the results of the Hawke-Keating era, unless it exposes the facade of prosperity created by Howard, rather than appear to shift blame after winning an election, a federal victory for the ALP in 2007 may be Pyrrhic, while a win in 2011 will be too late for the country.


See also: Costello accelerates: risking a crash on purpose? (2007-06-16)


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7 Responses to “Might the Libs want the ALP to win?”

  1. […] if Liberal Party strategists plan to lose, they won’t want to rest with a Senate majority, but want only the narrowest of loses in the […]

  2. […] noted in an earlier post (2007-05-08), the Libs may want to give the ALP a turn in office when the liquidity crunch hits, so the ALP […]

  3. […] than six months ago (2007-05-08) I raised the possibility that the Libs might want the ALP to win this election, so the ALP got the […]

  4. That’s interesting, and I hope some of this can be effectively communicated to the electorate. If lean times are ahead I think I’d prefer a Labor government presiding over them.

    This post is certainly food for thought.

  5. Dave Bath said

    I was wrong about the neocons in the Liberal Party castigating the wets.

    Petro Georgio and Malcolm Turnbull, leading wets, did quite well in their elections.

  6. […] "Might the Libs want the ALP to win?" (2007-05-08)  […]

  7. […] that the Liberals wanted to lose the last election, handing a poisoned chalice to the ALP ("Might the Libs want the ALP to win" 2007-05-08, "Chickens coming home, roosting above the fan" 2007-11-19) and my […]

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