Australian Lefty on Politics, Governance, Science and Info Management

Aqua Ribbon Electorates by 2020

Posted by Dave Bath on 2010-08-22

I’ve been watching Higgins and Kooyong over the last 20 years, and will make a prediction: those LNP "blue ribbon" seats will be leading a new phenomenon: "aqua ribbon" – going by 2020 through LNP requiring Green preferences, to Green with LNP preferences.

My own booth, Malvern Central is slightly more aqua than Higgins as a whole – with the swing away from LNP (-2.79) greater than the swing away from ALP (-2.26), while the Greens swing was +6.67

There will be more such seats, where traditional Liberal voters are moving to the Greens (especially as the worrying evidence about climate impacts comes in at an accelerating rate) but will continue to place the LNP above the ALP in preferences.

It was not unexpected that the first Green lower-house seats were taken from Labor, and this will doubtless continue unless the ALP returns to progressive politics.  But what I call "aqua ribbon" seats, with a well-educated wet small-l-liberal electorate, going Green without a Labor period, are likely to be important in Australian politics over the next couple of decades if things continue as they are – the Liberal party appealing more and more and to the less-educated aspirationals, more swayed by fear and greed than evidence – in color mode, the RedNeck and Born-To-Rule Blues (perhaps deserving the label "Purples").

Sooner or later, the Greens will themselves face a crisis, and it will be between the RedGreens and the Aquas.

I wonder if anyone agrees with me on "aqua ribbon" phenomenon, and if so, cares to suggest other electorates that could fall into this class.


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