Imagine if it had been Turnbull v Gillard
Posted by Dave Bath on 2010-08-24
While Mr Rabbit is applauded by LNP members for the increased Lib vote, he merely energized the party, unjustly claims credit where ALP idiocy was the contributor. The off-putting aspects of his policies and personality are being ignored.
Abbott as leader probably prevented LNP victory.
Turnbull is more appealing, especially to those concerned on environmental issues, and has demonstrated the kind of willingness to stand on principle, that I suspect would have got the Libs easily across the line if the ALP backroomers had still acted as they did, knifing KRudd.
The independents (look at their records on environment and human rights issues) would have found it much easier to throw their weight to a Turnbull-led house than an Abbott one if faced with the same situation of a hung parliament.
That said, a KRudd v Turnbull election might have led to similar seat totals in the lower house, and a more difficult choice for cross-benchers.
If a die-hard red like me can express a respect and even a little appeal to Turnbull, (having read a few of his speeches, his pre-Xmas speech particularly statesmanlike and decent), then how much more would he have attracted the swinging voters who sided with the ALP this time around, or those that liked KRudd until he wimped on climate action?
If Turnbull has a turn-off, it’s his patently high opinion of himself, his intelligence, but it’s not the arrogance of unshakeable faith in Abbott, a much greater turn-off.
Those who voted against policy-free parties, purely negative campaigning, those who don’t like Howardesque nastiness, would see Turnbull’s more constructive stances and actual vision as a breath of fresh air.
Sooner or later, many should note that Abbott gained Lib leadership through backroom vested-interests knifing a leader, in exactly the same way Gillard became leader of the ALP.
If we have a double dissolution anytime soon, Abbott’s arrogance, his nastier side, present a threat to LNP chances.
If the Libs as a party want power running the country, rather than their off-putting climate skeptic and hardliners running the party, and the ALP carries out popular public executions of backroom hacks allowing claims of having put their house in order, then a quick return to Turnbull might be the Lib’s best bet.
The thing is, they won’t be able to make the needed swap if Abbott is PM.