If only Castro had run the world, not just Cuba

Fidel Castro is the greenest leader in the world, not just because of his clothing, but because his policies have created the only sustainable country on the planet, with a healthy, educated society that matches first-world countries.

I’ve made some new calculations by combining data from The World Factbook 2006 (US Central Intelligence Agency) and The Living Planet Report 2006 (World Wildlife Fund, Zoological Society of London, Global Footprint Network), showing that if Fidel ran the world, both people and planet would be happy.

I’ll use CIA as shorthand for the CIA World Factbook, and LPR for the Living Planet Report.  I’m using the CIA wherever possible because if anybody wants to publish a damning appraisal of Cuba, it is the USA.

The United Nations Develop Programme’s (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI) is a measure of human well-being calculated from life expectancy, literacy, education and per-capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with scores over 0.8 considered "high human development".  A human footprint of lower than 1.8 global hectares per capita (GHA) is considered sustainable.  GHA includes hectares from outside the country used to support the population.

The only country in the world to meet both sustainability criteria is Cuba, with a HDI of 0.82, and GHA of 1.5 (LPR).  Fidel has managed to provide a developed-world standard-of living, with very little money, and without destroying the planet in the process.

Metric	World	Hi Inc	Mid Inc	Low Inc	Cuba	EU	Aus	NZ	USA	India	Zh
HDI (LPR)	0.74	0.91	0.77	0.59	0.82	0.92	0.96	0.93	0.94	0.60	0.76
GHA (LPR)	2.2	6.4	1.9	0.8	1.5	4.8	6.6	5.9	9.6	0.8	1.6
Fossil Fuel CO2 contrib to GHA (LPR)	1.06	3.58	0.85	0.21	0.62	2.45	3.41	1.60	5.66	0.26	0.75
Fossil Fuel CO2 % of GHA (LPR)	48	568	45	26	41	51	52	27	59	33	47
% GHA Change 1975 thru 2003 (LPR)	14	40	14	8	-2	31	-7	28	38	16	82
Literacy (CIA)	82				97		99	99	99	60	91
Infant mortality % (CIA)	4.9				0.62	0.51	0.46	0.56	0.64	5.5	2.3
Adult HIV % (CIA)					<0.1		0.1	0.1	0.6	0.9	0.1
Pop (mill) (CIA/LPR)	6500	956	3012	2303	11	457	20	4	298	1095	1314
Life Expect (CIA)	64.8				77.4	78.3	80.5	78.9	77.9	64.7	72.6
GDP per cap US$1K (PPP) (CIA)	9.5				3.5	28.1	31.9	25.2	41.8	3.3	6.8
GDP per cap US$1000 (Official) (CIA)	6.7					30.71	30.5	23.4	41.8	0.66	1.7
Mil Expend as %GDP (CIA)	2.0				1.8		2.7	1.0	4.1	2.5	4.3
(GDP PPP US$1K) /HDI (CIA/LPR)	12.8				4.3	30.5	33.2	27.1	44.5	5.5	9.0
(GDP US$1K) /HDI (CIA/LPR)	9.05					33.4	31.8	25.2	44.5	0.8	1.1
GHA/HDI (LPR)	3.0	7.0	2.5	1.4	1.8	5.2	6.9	6.3	10.2	1.3	2.1

Notes. (A) Most LPR figures are based on data as at 2003. This is important because the EU then was "old" Europe, without the newer, and lower-HDI East European members.  (B) The US prohibits currency exchange between Cuba and the US, so GDP cannot be expressed in official US$.  (C) Yes, there are rounding issues.  (D) Tables are tricky in some templates.  (E) Yes, the CIA Factbook now has a 2007 edition, but I haven’t reworked the figures..

I’ve developed three new indicators I have not seen elsewhere in the literature.  These are the bolded rows in the table above, and generally, the lower the figure, the better.  If you find similar indicators somewhere else, let me know their official names and how they are calculated.

(GDP PPP US$1K)/HDI could be termed "PPP Kilobucks per unit wellbeing".  It is the GDP in thousands of dollars US (Purchasing Power Parity) divided by the UN Human Development Index.  It suggests that with a per capita GDP of US$4300, Fidel might reach HDI=1 (nominally perfect), while the same level of happiness would cost US$33200 in Australia and US$45000 in America.  Fidel has reached a first-world standard of living, but in dollar terms has 10 times the efficiency of the US..  Note the average baby is more likely to die in the US than Cuba.

(GDP US$1K)/HDI could be termed "Kilogreenbacks per unit wellbeing".  It is the GDP in thousands of dollars US (Official Rate) divided by the UN Human Development Index. If there was an official Cuban/US exchange rate, Fidel would look even more of an economic and sustainability guru.

GHA/HDI could be termed "Global Hectares per unit wellbeing".  Again, wellbeing is close to US levels, but Fidel in sustainability terms has more than 5 times the efficiency of the US when it comes to increasing human happiness.

This is even more amazing when, unlike most world leaders or political parties, having been in control for over 40 years, Fidel can actually claim the credit, and his so-called "fossilized socialist policies" must actually have been half-a-century ahead of their time!.

If Fidel had ruled the world since he took over Cuba, we might not have an environmental crisis.  If the environment and all of humanity could read these figures and vote with intelligence rather than greed, Fidel and his policies would win the election hands down, even though he hasn’t been the greatest on free speech, etc.

If the century had a long-serving enlightened despot (the ideal system according to Aristotle), it would be Fidel.

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Related articles: UNDP Human Development Report 2006 Data (including spreadsheet download),  Happy Planet Index wikipedia article,   CanadianDimension,  CharlesArthur,  NewScientist,  PLS,   RadioHavana

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